US Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge to Highest Level in Years

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US Consumer Inflation Expectations Surge to Highest Level in Years
INFLATIONCONSUMER EXPECTATIONSFEDERAL RESERVE
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The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey reveals a sharp increase in inflation expectations for the coming year. Consumers anticipate a 4.3% price increase, the highest since November 2023. The surge is driven by Democrats, who now expect a 5.1% rise in prices. Longer-term inflation expectations also ticked up to 3.3%. The Federal Reserve closely monitors these expectations as they can influence actual inflation.

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months surged higher in early February, indicating that American households think inflation will go much higher over the coming year.

Longer-run inflation expectations, a measure of average expected price changes over the next five years, ticked up to 3.3 percent in February, up from 3.2 percent in the prior month. This too was largely driven by surging Democrat fears of inflation. The average expected inflation among Democrats rose to 4.2 percent, up from less than four percent a month ago and less than three percent prior to the election. Among independents, the longer-run expectation was unchanged.

The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 71.1, the lowest since July. Economists had expected a reading of 74. The index of current conditions fell from 74 to 68.7 and the index of expected economic conditions fell to 67.3 from 69.3.

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INFLATION CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS FEDERAL RESERVE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN DEMOCRATS

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