An analysis made by UP backed the government’s decision to extend it by another two weeks to prevent seeing an additional 70,000 cases and 3,100 deaths in Metro Manila alone. | jovicyeeINQ
“The ECQ is indeed working, but the gains are not irreversible. Ending the ECQ prematurely may disrupt the flattening of the curve,” Guido David, Ranjit Singh Rye and Ma. Patricia Agbulos said in their policy paper.
“There are possible rebound effects and increase in transmissions. Since the curve is close to flattening, it is advisable to wait until the curve has flattened before the ECQ is lifted,” they added. The Department of Health earlier explained that flattening the epidemic curve is meant to spread out cases in a much longer period so as not to overwhelm the country’s health system.
One of the metrics used by the team to say that the ECQ was successful in curbing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which causes COVID-19 is the drop in its reproductive number, or the ability of a person to transmit the infection to others.Based on data provided by DOH, the team said that the reproductive number of the virus in NCR had fallen below 1, registering at 0.86, as of Wednesday.
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