In the Monday edition of Bet Smart, Action Network’s director of predictive analytics recommended Cooper Kupp’s longest reception Over 28.5 yards, Kevin Huber’s longest punt Over 52.5 yards and the…
I always love these props for the Super Bowl. Most running backs average 4-plus rushing yards per attempt — that’s skewed by longer runs, but the median is closer to 3 or 3.5 yards. For this prop, I have Mixon going under 3.5 yards on his first rush attempt 60 percent of the time.
His first attempt won’t fool the Rams’ defense, which is ranked fifth in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Or it might even be a second- or third-and-short situation on which he just needs a yard. There are a lot of paths to winning this.Any player to rush for 100+ yards? No This Super Bowl involves two very good passing attacks that have struggled to rush the ball lately. My simulations give Mixon and Cam Akers around a 12 percent chance each of going over 100 yards. Mixon has topped 100 yards in three games this season — all three times in games in which the Bengals either won by 20-plus points or faced a bottom-five run defense. The Rams’ defense ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.
Neither quarterback has a chance of hitting 100 rush yards and the only way backups Samaje Perine or Sony Michel have a shot at this would be if Mixon or Akers were to go down. I’m giving this around a 78 percent chance of hitting and a fair line for this should be closer to -350.Obviously if either kicker gets a field goal inside 27 yards, this prop is toast. That’s why we would want to find the chances of either kicker getting an attempt inside 27 yards. Combined, 12.
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