Uncontrolled Rocket Reentries are a Bigger Problem Than you Think - by PaulMattSutter
This poses a significant risk to lives and property. While to date there have not been any serious consequences of uncontrolled rocket debris, we cannot assume this to be true going into the future.
The researchers analyzes the current orbits of 600 known pieces of space junk and estimated where they will re-enter the Earth. They found that most pieces of uncontrolled space junk are associated with geostationary orbits, which means that the risk of reentry is concentrated near the equator. This means that people living near the equator are at a much higher risk than those living at higher latitudes. But the countries that typically make these launches are situated away from the equator, so they are in effect shifting the risk of debris from their own populations onto countries that didn’t even participate in the launch process.
Overall the researchers found a roughly 10 to 20% risk of a casualty over the coming decade from uncontrolled debris. That casualty could take the form of a single person getting hit, or it could be something more catastrophic like a large building or an airplane being struck.by the community to properly address the next generation of spaceflight.
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