Ultimate finals verdict: Why every AFL contender left can and can’t win the flag
Their backline brilliance and ball movement.
It’s also a deep and, outside of Daicos, healthy squad, which led to coach Craig McRae making a bold call at the selection table on Thursday night. Defender John Noble was axed for the first final, despite the Magpie playing all 23 games of the home and away season. The Magpies’ contested ball work is also an area they’ll need to tidy up. From Rounds 1-11, the Pies ranked top two in contested possessions and ground ball gets and seventh in clearances. But since, they’ve dropped off dramatically to be ranked 15th in contested possessions, 17th in groundball gets and 11th in clearances.
Brisbane is also a lethal attacking team. In fact of the September combatants, no forward line is more damaging than Brisbane’s. “If you play straight-line footy against Brisbane, you play into Harris Andrews’ hands – and they do it really well at The Gabba, think like the Cats how they defend really week at their own home ground.Brisbane’s overall turnover game, too, isn’t in great shape.
In Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Zak Butters, the Power have a midfield brigade ready to explode on the September stage. “We know that because they are so aggressive with their press, if you can get through Port Adelaide, you can score,” Leigh Montagna warned onThey’ve also got some personnel issues. Key forward Charlie Dixon — one of Port’s most important players — and ruck Dante Visentini both won’t play against Brisbane, while Todd Marshall, Trent McKenzie and Scott Lycett are racing the clock to be fit. And if Lycett isn’t available, Sam Hayes will be the No. 1 ruck against Oscar McInerney.
“When we talk about the territory battle, this is the biggest challenge when playing the Demons,” Fox Footy’s Leigh Montagna said. “They are clearly the number one team in the competition at playing the game in their forward half. Now they’re refreshed and raring to go, with the added motivation of flag success in front of home fans - something that eluded them in 2021.There’s no doubt the skipper is a superstar of the competition. Fox Footy’s David King even calls Gawn the “biggest weapon” in the finals race.
Gawn believed the club has learnt from that disappointing exit last year, but actions always speak louder than words.Momentum. According to Champion Data’s ‘core four’, the Blues are ranked No. 1 in the competition. So as strong as the Blues’ profile is and as good as they stack up against the top-four sides, they’d have to defy significant history to claim a premiership.
Few would’ve expected the Saints to improve so much in their first season under coach Lyon that they’d be the No. 1 defence in the competition. St Kilda at the end of the home and away season was ranked first in the competition for point against, conceding just 71.6 per game. They’ve also got an in-form All-Australian full-back in Callum Wilkie, who conceded just one goal in his last four home and away games. That was playing on the likes of Charlie Curnow, Jack Riewoldt, Jeremy Cameron and Eric Hipwood, too.
Above all, the Saints would have to win three straight games — including a trip to either Brisbane or Adelaide in week two — to just get to a Grand Final. And a big reason why the Giants have won nine of their past 11 games is due to their strong forward-half game. And despite Green’s form, there’s also a question mark on their midfield return. They’re one of the weaker finals teams at stoppages, ranking 13th this season for clearance differential and 12th for average points from clearances .And could there be an unhealthy reliance on skipper Greene?
Also, any ‘no Buddy, no worries’ fears have surely been allayed during the back-end of this season. In their past seven games, the Swans have won six, scored 96 or more points in four of them and ranked among the top-six teams in average points scored . Hayden McLean, Isaac Heeney, Will Hayward and Logan McDonald have all lifted their outputs during that period.
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