AFL: The 2024 Premiership window shapes as one of the most intriguing in recent memory, with none of the top four teams featuring.
IMAGINE WHAT YOU COULD BE BUYING INSTEAD. For Free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.1st, 17-6, Qualifying Final vs. GWS Giants at the SCGSydney is best-placed to win the 2024 premiership, having had easily the best home-and-away campaign in the competition to put itself in position to win its way to the decider.
Returning skipper Callum Mills has settled in defence, leaving the aforementioned triad to do the brunt of the damage between the arcs, while veteran Luke Parker has found a rare vein of form for a player in the twilight of his career. Further, first quarters — and starts to games in general — were problematic for Sydney, losing 14 of 23 this year. Longmire’s side simply cannot afford to fall behind the eight-ball in the finals.2nd, 16-7, Qualifying Final vs. Geelong at Adelaide OvalPort Adelaide is as well-placed to win the flag as it has ever been — partly due to its current run of form, but also because of the even nature of this year’s premiership race.
In addition, the Power have the single best clearance-to-score percentage in the league this season, registering at least a point from 29 per cent of clearances. They are a tight-knit, well-oiled machine that is finally ready to flourish on the big stage, having only threatened to do so in years gone by.Without trying to sound too pessimistic, does history tell us they won’t?
While Port Adelaide’s record against top eight teams has improved this year, it does seem like a pretty big ask for them to win back-to-back games away from home against such quality opposition for a flag. Cameron in particular could break this finals series wide open, as he enters in ominous form following a few big hauls to close out the regular season.
While defence has been a strong suit for Geelong, capitalising in between the arcs hasn’t always been free-flowing — Scott’s men were 14th for intercept-to-score rate and 13th for clearance-to-score rate, as well as just seventh for forward-half scoring. Because while it is spearheaded by superstars Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene, there is depth galore forward of the ball for Adam Kingsley’s side — think livewire Brent Daniels, Darcy Jones, James Peatling and Harvey Thomas, as well as emerging key-position gem Aaron Cadman.
Despite the presence of Green, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly and Callan Ward, GWS ranked 17th in the AFL for clearances this season. In short, to stop Brisbane in the finals, you’ll need to stop its prolific onballers. Just think about the threat Brisbane’s midfielders and forward-half operators pose — particularly at The Gabba.
Further, with the way this team was playing at the business end of the season, it should have finished in the top-four — if not for disappointing back-to-back losses to GWS and Collingwood within the last three weeks of the regular season. Then there is the midfield and attacking firepower at Luke Beveridge’s disposal. Marcus Bontempelli is considered every chance of snagging this year’s Brownlow Medal, while Adam Treloar just earned his maiden All-Australian blazer in his 13th season — and that’s without mentioning burgeoning onballer Ed Richards and reliable contested beast Tom Liberatore.
Further, Beveridge’s side hasn’t been the most consistent throughout different points in the year, and right when it seemed the Dogs were genuine flag fancies, they were pantsed by the lowly Crows in Round 23. Since Round 16, the Hawks have been the best transition team in the competition, generating 43 points from the defensive half and turning a defensive-50 possession into a forward-50 entry 27 per cent of the time.
Then there’s the ‘rascal pack’, headlined by former Pie Jack Ginnivan and excitement machine Nick Watson. The pair embody the fun that is being had at Waverley Park this season, with their quirky goal celebrations and exuberant personalities shining brightly for the football landscape to see. The Hawks have won eight out of their past 10 games and 14 out of the past 18 to make them arguably the hottest team in the competition.
Hawthorn’s vulnerabilities in the back half are exactly why it has fought to bring Saints star Josh Battle and West Coast gun Tom Barrass to the club, especially with Frost nearing the end of his career. Jai Newcombe, James Worpel and Conor Nash will be integral to that, as will ruck Lloyd Meek — all finding form in the back half of the regular season.
Positively, Carlton’s stoppage profile has again impressed, having ranked second in the AFL for contested possession differential, fifth in clearance differential, and fourth in points scored from clearances.
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