European allies are increasingly preparing for Ukraine-Russia negotiations that could include territorial concessions in return for security guarantees for Kyiv.
By Ellen Francis, The Washington PostUkraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, left, waits for the start of a meeting with United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024.
European and NATO officials acknowledge that talk of territorial concessions no longer raises as many eyebrows as it once did, and diplomats frame it not as “land-for-peace,” but rather as land for Ukraine’s security. Backing the Ukrainian army as long as necessary “is the only path to negotiations,” French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday, standing alongside NATO chief Mark Rutte. “And let me be clear,” he added, “when the moment comes, nothing must be decided on Ukraine without the Ukrainians, nor on Europe without the Europeans.”
As they try to persuade Trump to stay the course, European countries have boosted defense spending and funding for Ukraine to contain the fallout of a possible U.S. policy shift. They face an uphill battle to maintain aid in the long run, with struggling economies and political chaos in countries including France and Germany.
Moscow has signaled it would accept nothing less than Ukrainian capitulation. Putin has maintained that Ukraine would have to accept total neutrality for any talks to succeed. He has said that “if Ukraine’s neutrality does not exist, it is hard to imagine any good neighborly relations with Russia.” He has also said that any cease-fire could not be a temporary arrangement that would merely allow Ukraine to stock up on munitions.
Like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European leaders would also have to navigate public messaging on negotiations after more than two years of warning of an existential threat to Europe that requires sending Kyiv billions in aid.
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