UK recession likely worse than expected with 25% contraction this quarter

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UK recession likely worse than expected with 25% contraction this quarter
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With wage subsidies driven by the Covid-19 extended until October, and consumer spending falling, the country is hurting

Shuttered shops in Croydon, UK. Picture: BLOOMBERG/JASON ALDEN

This highlights the monumental task the government faces in restarting the economy as it begins to take small steps towards easing the lockdown. It’s extended an aid programme for workers, while the central bank will probably pump even more stimulus into the economy to keep the motor running. The economy has now failed to grow for three of the previous four quarters, after months of political and Brexit uncertainty meant the UK entered the latest crisis on a weak footing.

Meanwhile, the BOE, which has cut interest rates to 0.1% and restarted bond purchases, has indicated more easing could come as soon as next month. It expects a strong rebound in 2021 after a 14% slump this year but many analysts regard such a scenario as overly optimistic.

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