UK recession could be deferred to later in 2023 after solid consumer spending

Britain's GDP unexpectedly rose 0.1% in November

Shoppers cross the road in Oxford Street, London, Britain. Picture: REUTERS

November’s figures mean the UK economy probably avoided a recession in the final months of 2022. The ONS said December’s GDP figure would have to fall about 0.5% to deliver a contraction for the fourth quarter. Despite the surprise boost in November, monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% below its pre-coronavirus levels. Economists and the central bank warn that a squeeze on incomes will depress activity in the economy, setting up one of the longest slumps on record.

World Cup football matches boosted consumer-facing businesses and helped offset the impact of strikes, the ONS said. Services as a whole rose quicker than expected, driven by recruitment agencies that saw a monthly gain of 2.1%. Those factors helped the economy shrug off a sharper-than-expected slump in manufacturing.

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