The view from Wall Street may be all trade wars, tariffs and uncertainty these d...
ST. LOUIS - The view from Wall Street may be all trade wars, tariffs and uncertainty these days, but ask a Main Street banker and things are pretty darn good.
It’s an outlook that contrasts with the brooding about recession that has driven U.S. bond yields to near historic lows in recent weeks, and caused stock markets to wobble with each trade threat from the White House. Even with markets diving another 2% on Wednesday and the World Trade Organization slashing estimates of global trade growth, the mood here remained firm.
Since the spring the CSBS has rolled out a new sentiment index built on surveys of more than 500 community bankers from across the country. The first set of results, in June, showed “an overall positive outlook,” with large majorities of those surveyed expecting stable or improved business conditions and profit.
The risks seem truly scary, with the world’s main economic actors seeming to have turned away from cooperation and toward conflict and central bankers admitting they may not be of much help going forward. That was around the time Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Mexico over an immigration dispute, an event which jolted Fed officials in their analysis of economic risks.
But the U.S. economy remains dominated by services and consumer spending, and the largely upbeat attitude here may show how buffered many parts of the United States are from the trade war that dominates debate in Washington.
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