Over the last month the U.S.-China trade war has boosted the risk of a U.S. rece...
BENGALURU - Over the last month the U.S.-China trade war has boosted the risk of a U.S. recession, say a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters, who now put the chances of that happening in the next two years at 40%.
“I have a hard time thinking of a scenario in which a further escalation of the trade tension we currently have would not make recession risk higher,” said Michael Hanson, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. The U.S. economy is forecast to have already lost considerable momentum, slowing to 2.0% in the current quarter from 3.2% in the first three months of the year, according to median forecasts from the latest monthly poll of 120 economists.
China is trying to steer its economy away from exporting cheap goods and more toward domestic consumption. But the United States, already a very consumer-reliant economy, imports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods from China, which the Trump administration is hitting with tariffs.“There actually seems to be a belief in the White House that trade wars are both good and winnable.
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