Marc Hochstein is CoinDesk's Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Features, Opinion, Ethics and Standards. He holds BTC above CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1K and de minimis amounts of other digital assets (details in bio).
Two U.S.-regulated, dollar-denominated prediction markets began taking bets on the presidential race this week, with a month to go before Election Day.
So far volumes are modest at both CFTC-supervised exchanges, with $344,101 worth of contracts traded on Kalshi and $346,000 on ForecastEx. By comparison, more than $1.2 billion has been staked on the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump at Polymarket, the crypto-powered prediction market platform, which, despite prohibiting U.S.
Similarly, in markets there is sometimes a"margin of inefficiency" where any profits to be made from arbitraging price differences are not worth the effort."There's no sufficient incentive for anyone to scoop up the penny that the difference might present."
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