Oliver Knight is a CoinDesk reporter based between London and Lisbon. He does not own any crypto.
Mainstream media reports have speculated that Donald Trump's odds on Polymarket are being manipulated for political purposes.
"If the goal was to move the price, you'd do the opposite," said Flip Pidot, co-founder and CEO of American Civics Exchange, an over-the-counter dealer in political futures contracts."Instead of having several accounts trading strategically with limit orders, you'd just keep plowing money in blindly and let yourself get filled at worse and worse prices, since that would be optimal if your goal was to artificially inflate the price.
“To effectively trade this you do need quite a lot of infrastructure around poll/reporting data per state and such, and as the election comes up you need to digest incoming data to adjust your odds,” van Rossum told CoinDesk. As a result, the amount of capital required to move the needle for Harris by 1 percentage point is around $70,000, based on order book data. For Trump, it is more than 10 times as much: $718,000.
The fragmentation of betting across multiple venues means that if prices get out of whack on one platform, that price should almost immediately get knocked back in line with other markets because there is near-instantaneous money to be made by selling the higher price on one platform and buying a lower price on another.However, there are a few reasons why odds might be higher for bets on Trump winning on Polymarket.
"If these distinct groups have different media environments, they could be systematically exposed to different information about the election, and so form different opinions about the probability of certain outcomes," Brogan told CoinDesk.
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