Nikhilesh De is CoinDesk's managing editor for global policy and regulation. He owns marginal amounts of bitcoin and ether.
A panel of judges grilled attorneys for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and prediction-betting platform Kalshi over the company's efforts to launch political prediction markets in the U.S., without indicating whether they'd allow Kalshi to offer these products while reviewing a lower court's ruling on the products.
The CFTC's Schwartz called D.C. District Court Judge Jia Cobb's Sept. 12 ruling"seriously flawed," and said it could allow Kalshi – and other companies – to immediately launch"high-stakes" betting markets. Kalshi saw $50,000 deposited in its two political events contracts in the eight hours or so that the products were live before the CFTC filed for an emergency stay, Roth said.The CFTC's arguments revolve around the agency's stated inability to police the underlying events – namely, U.S. elections.
That is what should happen, but political prediction markets may be susceptible to manipulation that cannot be easily corrected, Schwartz said. "There's really very little monkeying around you can do with an earthquake," Schwartz said, responding to one example. "The most important thing I want to make is that the way to reduce that risk is to allow Kalshi markets to offer because right now, this activity is happening and being reported to voters based on markets that are not regulated, that are open to foreign traders, that have no surveillance. … There's no transparency," he said."We don't know who's buying, who's selling cryptocurrency.
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