Typhoon Mekkhala (Francisco) rapidly intensified to Category 4 over the Philippine Sea, then weakened as it curves toward Japan. The storm threatens Okinawa, Kyushu, and Shikoku with heavy rain and high surf starting late this week.
Typhoon Mekkhala — known in the Philippines as Francisco — exploded into a Category 4 super typhoon over the weekend before weakening and turning toward Japan’s southern islands. As of Tuesday, June 23, 2026, the storm was churning about 620 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City in the Philippines, moving west-northwest at 15 kph. But forecasters expect it to recurve northeast, missing Luzon but threatening Okinawa, Kyushu, and Shikoku with flooding rain, high surf, and damaging winds starting late this week.
The storm peaked with sustained winds of 230 kph (143 mph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, making it equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Satellite images showed a well-defined eye and symmetric convection during its rapid intensification phase. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has hoisted Signal No. 1 over Batanes, northern Cagayan, and the eastern Babuyan Islands, warning of minimal to moderate damage. But the archipelago is expected to avoid a direct hit.
“Mekkhala has likely reached its peak intensity and has begun to decelerate as it rounds the edge of the North Pacific High,” noted tropical weather analyst MattWestPacWX on social media. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the system to a strong typhoon, and models show a recurvature that will carry it north-northeastward toward the Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, and then toward Kyushu and Shikoku in southern Japan.
Meteorologist Jason Nicholls of AccuWeather posted that the typhoon “has slowed and turned north with a turn to the northeast likely later Thursday or Friday, local time.” That shift will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Ryukyu Islands, Kyushu, Shikoku, and southern Honshu. While Mekkhala is weakening, it remains a potent system. The Met Office Storms account noted the storm “will avoid a direct impact on the Philippines,” but further east, Tropical Storm Higos has formed in the Pacific.
Video posted by social media user Hermes showed 11-meter (36-foot) waves near Okinawa on June 23, illustrating dangerous sea conditions already affecting the region. Meteorologist Matthias Sänger shared multi-model ensemble tracks showing landfall in southern Japan, likely in Okinawa and Kyushu, but emphasized the system will weaken significantly by then. Hurricane Chaser Chase, a storm chaser and analyst, rated the threat to Japan as “Marginal to Slight,” noting that even Tokyo could see decent flooding from the storm’s outer bands.
The JTWC and JMA forecasts indicate that Mekkhala may still be a typhoon or severe tropical storm at landfall, capable of producing widespread power outages and travel disruptions. Residents in the warned areas are advised to prepare emergency kits, check evacuation routes, and stay updated with local authorities. The storm follows a recent earthquake in the region, compounding the need for disaster readiness. “Have that go bag ready—batteries, flashlights, radio, extra water,” urged one weather analyst in a YouTube briefing. “You never know when the big one will hit, and the same kit works for typhoons.”
Mekkhala is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday, June 26, and could weaken to a tropical depression as it moves into the Sea of Japan. But its legacy as one of the strongest storms of the early 2026 Pacific typhoon season is already assured, with rapid intensification and a track that tested forecasting models and emergency services across the region.
Please follow us on Google to support usTyphoon Francisco Japan typhoon 2026 Okinawa typhoon Philippine Sea storm tropical cyclone Japan super typhoon Mekkhala forecast Ryukyu Islands Kyushu flooding