After being cut out of Europe, Russia is looking to form a sort of natural gas cartel, and Turkmenistan appears to be on board.
Turkmenistan has doubled down on its energy ties with Russia.
The main purchaser is China, which displaced Russia more than a decade ago and currently imports around four times as much gas from Turkmenistan as Russia does. “But Ashgabat is clearly coming down on the side of Russia and spurning opportunities to move its gas in a Western direction. It has chosen to move towards its authoritarian brothers-in-arms, Russia and Iran -- a policy that serves to safeguard its need for isolation,” said Bohr.
One Russian Telegram channel cited by RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service as being close to the Kremlin said Miller’s headline message to Turkmenistan was that Russia would block any attempt to build a Trans-Caspian Pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, a development that would free up Azerbaijani gas for exports to Europe.
Among these are the expansion of European infrastructure related to liquefied natural gas , which the EU has been importing much more of amid its abandonment of Russian gas, and the EU’s long-term commitment to transitioning to renewable energy, Ruseckas argued. Absent an outlet to ramp up exports to the West and looking to balance its sales north to Russia and east to China, Turkmenistan is heading a consortium for a pipeline that would send gas to India via Pakistan and Afghanistan called TAPI, a multibillion-dollar blueprint that has no known investor.
But fundamental problems with the project, including transiting Afghanistan and reservations about the technical capacities of Turkmenistan’s state gas company Turkmengaz, have not changed, Ruseckas said.As for investments from Moscow, “Russia isn’t exactly a country that has billions and billions of dollars to spend on a pipeline right now,” he noted.
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