TRY: Capital flows quieten down as current-account improves

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TRY: Capital flows quieten down as current-account improves
EURTRYTurkeyBanks
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The Turkish lira exchange rate has mildly depreciated against the US dollar in recent days, but not noticeably so.

This is all the more impressive because the dollar itself has been rallying, which has put most emerging market currencies in the region – eastern European currencies in particular – on the backfoot. The steadiness of the lira is pertinent because policymakers have taken pains to highlight Turkey ’s improving current-account fundamentals in recent months, and there is an implication that this must help the exchange rate, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

” “But it is worth remembering that the current-account balance also recorded surpluses historically when the economy had to slow down. At present, presumably it is higher interest rates which are beginning to have their desired contractionary effect. The ongoing improvement is encouraging alright, but not yet massive by comparison.

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