Trump-Xi meeting this week could head off a global recession or worsen outlook

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Trump-Xi meeting this week could head off a global recession or worsen outlook
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As President Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Japan later this week, the course of the global economy may depend on which Donald Trump shows up.

Will it be the politician who is afraid of pushing the quarrel so much that he could damage the economy and harm his reelection chances? Or will it be the impulsive populist who acts out his nationalist instincts and stirs his most avid supporters with hard-line rhetoric?

“This is really a critical window to try to de-escalate the trade and technology tensions before what could be a very hot summer of tit-for-tat retaliations,” said Michael Hirson, a former top U.S. Treasury official in Beijing who heads the Eurasia Group’s China practice. Beyond a resolution of that issue, Beijing officials also want a lifting of tariffs, currently imposed on $250 billion of Chinese goods and about $110 billion of American products. Trump officials are readying steep 25% duties on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, which could take effect as early as next month.

“Huawei poses a genuine spying risk to the United States and our allies,” said Wyden. But, “right out in the open, the president is telling China’s spymasters that he’s willing to give away America’s national security for a face-saving trade deal.” “At some point, he has to prove that in doing business with strongmen he can actually produce outcomes,” said David Lampton, a fellow at Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Center. “The last thing Trump needs is to go into a campaign without his trump card of a great economy.”

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