The 2020 election is still more than four months away, but Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College would become slim or impossible if even half of those states break for Biden.
and found Clinton leading Trump by 4.1 percentage points in Pennsylvania , 4.1 points in Wisconsin , 2.4 points in Michigan , 2.3 points in North Carolina and 2.2 points in Florida .
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, told USA TODAY that the numbers show Trump"is in a polling slump and he's in a bad position for reelection as the incumbent," but they aren't"even vaguely predictive." "We make the same mistake every four years," said Sabato."Not that this poll was wrong, I think it was basically a reflection of what is true today. But the election – I used to say it is Nov. 3, but actually, it starts in September with early voting – but it's still in the fall. We have a whole season and a half to go."
Sabato was optimistic that pollsters have learned from their mistakes four years ago. He was encouraged that they are giving greater weight to respondents' education level – a key demographic factor in 2016 that he said was largely overlooked – and conducting more polls in states that might have previously been assumed to lean Democratic or Republican.
"What really gives me more confidence is that nobody wants to be wrong again on the big one," Sabato said."Everybody got hit over the head with a two-by-four , and generally, that makes you never want to get hit over the head with a two-by-four again."
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