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saw a sizable surge in the election betting markets Monday, and his momentum has carried into the week. Despite this, Vice PresidentAfter trailing Harris in the betting markets for 26 consecutive days, Trump first pulled ahead Sunday before getting a bigger boost Monday. As of Wednesday, the markets give Trump a 51.3% chance to win the White House, compared to 47.3% for Harris.
While Trump’s national polling numbers haven’t changed in any meaningful way, as he has been steadily two to three points behind Harris, the swing state landscape has sharply put its money behind the former president in recent days. While the swing state voter registration figures set the stage for Trump’s surge, the catalyst may have been the release of Harris’sinterview that aired on Oct. 7. After evading media interviews for the better part of her campaign, Harris launched a media blitz this week, which included an interview with CBS’s Bill Whitaker. She has facedThose surveyed in polls are often asked who they believe will win the election, regardless of their own preference.
Since former President John F. Kennedy did it in 1960, only two betting underdogs have won the presidential election: former President Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Trump in 2016. Kennedy was only a slight underdog, at +110 odds, which is a 47.62% probability of victory, and Carter was placed at +100.
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