(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump enjoys a strong economy, a nation at relative peace, the advantage of incumbency and a well funded campaign -- assets that make him a good bet for re-election, even though most voters say they don’t like him.Trump will formally kick off his 2020 re-election bid in a prime-time
-- Donald Trump enjoys a strong economy, a nation at relative peace, the advantage of incumbency and a well funded campaign -- assets that make him a good bet for re-election, even though most voters say they don’t like him.
“Right now, Trump is much better positioned than the Democrats or the conventional wisdom would have us believe,” said Allan Lichtman, a political historian at American University in Washington who has predicted eight of the last nine elections, including Trump’s 2016 victory. “The Democrats, just like in 2016, are making the immense mistake that the way to win in 2020 is to play it safe.
George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992 despite economic growth of 4% or better for four consecutive quarters. He suffered from perceptions he was disconnected from the public after a six-month recession in 1990-91, and the unemployment rate was still 7.4% on Election Day.At the moment, Trump trails six of his top Democratic rivals in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released last week.
Lichtman said he ignores national polls and looks instead at how Trump has performed while in office, examining factors including foreign policy successes, economic performance and midterm election performance. His model shows Trump with a comfortable cushion. That could change if House Democrats begin impeachment hearings, heightening the swirl of scandal around Trump, he added.
“If unemployment is still below 4% and the growth rate still above 3% he is not going to lose,” Luntz said.Trump intends to run a much different race than his 2016 campaign, when the reality TV star announced his insurgent candidacy by gliding down the golden escalator at Trump Tower in New York. He is now a politician, with a record to defend and accountability for the domestic economy and international affairs.
The campaign is hoping to cement Trump’s grip on Florida before his Democratic challenger even has staff in the state.Demography also works against the president. Non-college educated whites, who overwhelmingly supported Trump, are shrinking as a proportion of the population. They made up 44.7% of eligible voters in 2016 but will fall to about 40% by 2020, according to a projection by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.
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