Donald Trump has achieved a resounding victory in the 2024 presidential election, securing both the popular and electoral votes. This triumph comes amid a series of setbacks for his political opponents and a resurgence of support for his unconventional policies. As Trump prepares for his second term, the article analyzes the factors contributing to his success, the challenges he may face, and the potential implications for the future of American politics.
It is not enough in life that one succeed, the droll economist John Kenneth Galbraith is supposed to have said. Others must fail. Donald Trump seems to be succeeding at just about every enterprise he undertakes while his political and ideological opponents are failing in spectacularly visible fashion. This time, Trump won the popular and electoral votes, with a percentage that, rounded off, is identical to those of former Presidents Jimmy Carter, John Kennedy, and Harry Truman.
National polls show him with majority approval, something he never achieved before. This year, in contrast to 2017, there are no plans for a counter-inaugural parade or moves by journalists or politicians to style themselves “The Resistance.” Trump secured the reelection of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in the narrowly divided House by limiting Republicans’ dissenting votes to exactly one. His controversial appointees, at this moment, appear headed for confirmation in the 53-47 Republican Senate. The lawsuits that Democrats hoped would disqualify him from running or prevent him from winning have crashed and burned. No one takes seriously the Manhattan kangaroo court verdicts against him. Former special counsel Jack Smith’s assertions that he could have convicted him are undercut by the fact that he did not. Shunned eight years ago by his presidential predecessors, by Wall Street, and by incumbent leaders in just about every establishment institution, Trump will be inaugurated this time with Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg on the podium. Leaders of the past, meet the wave of the future. In the meantime, outgoing President Joe Biden is tarred by his pardon, contrary to repeated promises, of his son Hunter Biden. His heavy spending policies, hailed as a second New Deal, and his open-door immigration policies, hailed as humanitarian, produced inflation and a flood of illegal immigrants, which would have doomed his candidacy even if he had been at full strength and which ended up dooming Vice President Kamala Harris’s. His botched withdrawal from Afghanistan plunged his job approval below 50%, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Hamas’s attack on Israel in 2023 obscured his constructive initiatives with allies in Asia and the Pacific. Biden was elected in 2020 as an experienced insider who would respect experts’ consensus over Trump’s maverick impulses. But the experts have had a bad decade. They insisted on masking schoolchildren on playgrounds and closed schools too long, setting back learning, especially for disadvantaged children. They suppressed evidence that COVID-19 resulted from a Chinese lab leak because it would have embarrassed the man who Enlightened experts called for defunding the police and lenient prosecutors, as violent crime spiked and repeated shoplifting became routine in cities including New York and San Francisco. Misleadingly named “diversity, equity, and inclusion” programs proliferated on campuses and in corporations until their iatrogenic effects were documented in the Most spectacularly, the horrifying fires raging in California seem likely to discredit the liberal Democrats who have a political monopoly there. It’s too early to say exactly the extent to which official negligence is responsible. But even if you blame climate change, California’s concentration on green policies, such as banning gasoline-powered vehicles, have little effect on climate, while failure at mitigation, such as keeping reservoirs filled and clearing combustible brush, have proved disastrous. This moment will not last forever. Trump’s unorthodox appointees, including Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Kristi Noem, even if confirmed could crash and burn within months. The macroeconomy may yield unpleasant surprises. So could foreign crises. Trump will enter the White House, as Democrats note, five months older than Biden was four years ago, and his astonishing robustness and resilience on the campaign trail may not last. But the possibility also exists that Trump’s leadership may seem successful and generate more support for what is now a Trump Republican Party. Behind the narrowness of his 49.9%-48.4% popular vote margin is polling evidence that 2024 nonvoters, especially among young Hispanic and black people, have soured on Democrats and trended halfway toward Trump Republicans — and could go the full way if Trump seems successful. It’s a truism that presidents’ parties suffer reverses in off-year elections, but it’s not inevitable. Presidents’ parties’ losses were zero or limited in 1934, 1954, 1962, 1970, 1978, and 2002 and were mostly due to redistricting in 1982. And the schedule of upcoming contests looks mildly favorable to Trump and Republicans. Virginia and New Jersey elect governors this fall, with incumbents term-limited. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin won with 51% in Virginia, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli almost won with 48% in New Jersey. In retrospect, both results look like a premonition of 2024
DONALD TRUMP 2024 ELECTION PRESIDENTIAL VICTORY BIDEN ADMINISTRATION REPUBLICAN PARTY AMERICAN POLITICS
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