Derek Saul is a New Jersey-based Senior Reporter on Forbes' news team. He graduated in 2021 from Duke University, where he majored in Economics and served as sports editor for The Chronicle, Duke's student newspaper, joining Forbes soon thereafter.
proposed by former President Donald Trump would pose a major headwind to stocks globally, according to a report from UBS investment bank examining the impact of several scenarios for equities heading into November’s U.S. election.The joint analysis from UBS economists and strategists, including its chief U.S. economist Jonathan Pingle and chief U.S. strategist Jonathan Golub, forecasted that if the U.S.
Those are 11% and 2% respective declines from the benchmark U.S. stock index’s record Wednesday close of 5,792 . The tariff-related pain would be felt more intensely by investors in equities abroad, with the bank estimating Europe’s Stoxx 600 index would decline 14% by the end of next year and still be down 13% by the end of 2026 and the MSCI China index would fall 11% by the end of 2025 and remain 7% below its current level by 2026.
The extreme tariff scenario, which may “constrain competitiveness” as trade moves less freely, would cause global gross domestic output growth to slow to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, weaker than the 2.9% economic expansion forecasted by UBS in both years in a baseline scenario. UBS’ baseline scenario calls for the S&P to end 2025 at 6,400 and 6,850 , forecasting double-digit percentage gains for European and Chinese stocks over the next two years as well.UBS also laid out S&P price targets for if either party wins the presidency and a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
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