An analysis of Trump's tariff standoff with Canada and Mexico reveals a mixed bag. While he claims victory, a closer look suggests a retreat from a potentially damaging trade war. This raises questions about the substance of his deals and the impact of his volatile approach on America's global standing.
There are two things to remember when assessing Donald Trump ’s presidencies. First, nothing is more important than the commander in chief looking tough. Second, nothing is really what it seems. Trump’s classic political method is already on full display in his second presidency and helps explain the baffling chaos, brinkmanship and posturing of his tariff showdown with Canada and Mexico. Punishing 25% levies on imports from America’s closest neighbors were due to come into force at 12:01 a.m.
ET Tuesday, but Trump put his two-front trade war on hold, claiming he’d scored two big wins and major concessions. But despite a White House victory lap, there’s a more convincing case that it was really Trump who backed away from a fight that could have caused severe economic pain. Trump does have some bragging rights. He campaigned on strengthening America’s northern and southern borders and demanded Canada and Mexico do more to cut the flow of undocumented migrants and fentanyl. After Trump spoke to President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday, she announced she’d send 10,000 Mexican troops to the border. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau agreed to name a fentanyl czar, set up a joint US-Canada border task force and spend $1.3 billion on helicopters and technology to secure the 49th Parallel. “As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that,” Trump wrote on Truth Social after putting tariffs on hold for 30 days to see how the “deals” he forged with Canada and Mexico play out. Pro-Trump media proclaimed famous victories. “Mexico and Canada buckle,” Fox News declared in a chyron. “Canada Caves,” said Breitbart News, adding, “Art of the Deal: Trump already won the trade war with Mexico for USA.” For the White House, Trump had racked up wins, and in “America First” mode, bullied foreign states into submission. “Canada is bending the knee, just like Mexico,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told CNN. This was a stunning insult coming from a press aide with no diplomatic responsibility. It also suggested deep contempt for Canada, especially in the White House of a president who demands it become the 51st state. How much is real about Trump’s ‘wins’? But what did Trump get? What did it cost? And will it last? A more objective view of the bizarre showdown with America’s neighbors suggests a blunter truth: Trump blinked. The president vowed as recently as last week that there was nothing that Canada or Mexico could do to avoid the tariffs he planned to impose. But he pulled back on imposing them anyway. As markets tanked on Monday morning, the potential consequences of a North American trade war were laid bare. The potential for tariffs to spike the grocery prices that Trump was partly elected to fix came into focus. There were fresh warnings that the auto industry — a cross-border concern — could seize up and that the price of a new vehicle could soon shoot up by $3,000. And Canada and Mexico didn’t really give up that much. For the Canadians, the cost of a new border strategy was far lower than the fallout of a trade war — and they’d offered the $1.3 billion border strengthening program back in December. Adding a new “fentanyl” czar was hardly a huge political loss. Mexico has several times moved troops to the border. For example, it sent 10,000 in April 2021 at the request of President Joe Biden, who didn’t need to threaten to pitch America’s southern neighbor into a recession to get it to act. Still, Trump has renewed his reputation as a brazen and belligerent force, who sees little distinction between allies and adversaries and leaves his interlocutors guessing at his next move. This is a good political look back home among some of Trump’s supporters. But he’s also reinforced the impression, left over from his first term, that he’s merely transactional and cares more about the chance to claim big wins than the substance of his deals. More seriously, the tariff showdown has confirmed that once again, the foreign policy of the world’s most powerful nation is an expression of Trump’s volatile character. And by undermining the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal that he argued in his first term was one of the world’s greatest, Trump has undermined trust in America’s word and raised doubts over his capacity to close future deals. Constantly offending the country’s closest friends threatens to undermine Western solidarity against America’s real enemies like Russian and China. And by backing down at the 11th hour, the president also sent a clear message to Beijing — which faces a new 10% tariff on exports to the US — that he might jump at a potential deal if it looks like a breakthrough, even if it lacks dept
DONALD TRUMP TARIFFS CANADA MEXICO TRADE WAR US FOREIGN POLICY AMERICA FIRST
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