Trump's Support Climbs in Bay Area's Low-Income Cities

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Trump's Support Climbs in Bay Area's Low-Income Cities
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A new analysis reveals that support for Donald Trump has surged in low-income cities across the Bay Area since 2016, suggesting a strong correlation between economic hardship and voting patterns.

Support for President-elect Donald Trump has grown in nearly every city and town in the Bay Area since 2016, including significant inroads in some of the Bay Area ’s most Democratic strongholds. In 67 of the region’s 69 cities and towns, the number of votes Trump received in 2024 was higher than in 2016, and a new analysis of election data by the Bay Area News Group found one particularly significant factor: income.

The places with the lowest incomes — San Pablo, Richmond, Antioch, Oakland, San Leandro, Pittsburg and East Palo Alto — all tallied at least 50% more Trump votes in 2024, while the highest-income cities and towns showed the least change overall. “Overwhelmingly, this is an affordability issue,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political strategist and author of a new book about Latino voters, “The Latino Century.” “It’s not a jobs issue, it’s not a taxes issue, it’s not your standard Republican perspective on the economy.”Of the 10 Bay Area cities with the highest share of votes for Democrats in 2016, five counted at least a 50% increase in votes for Trump, a Republican, in 2024, a figure that's higher than the regional average. East Palo Alto -- with a median household income of $105,000, the lowest in San Mateo County -- had the region’s most dramatic increase in Trump voters, more than tripling from 409 in 2016 to 1,282 in 2024. His vote share grew from 6% to 19% of voters. “That's an area that's economically disadvantaged, where people are really feeling the inflation and the increase in the cost of things like groceries and gasoline,” said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo Colleg

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