Multiple polls show Trump steadily increasing his lead over the Florida governor. The rest of the 2024 GOP primary field is far behind.
, which uses a different mix of polls and weights them for past accuracy and partisan lean, shows a less dynamic Trump lead in its averages: 16.7 percent a month ago, and 24.6 today. Still, the former president is gaining ground, and the Florida governor is losing it. In neither set of averages are other candidates making much of a mark: At RCP, Haley and Pence are tied at 4 percent; at FiveThirtyEight, Pence is at 5.5 percent and Haley is at 4.2 percent.
Another indicator worth watching, though the data points are scattered, involves the occasional one-on-one poll matching Trump against DeSantis with no other options to complicate the choice.
In any event, even the one-on-one polls are now showing Trump ahead. As recently as early February, YouGov-Yahoo surveys had DeSantis leading Trump in a straight-up competition by a
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