Donald Trump
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten warned that Republicans could face a brutal beating in the Texas Senate race after Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton.
The president backed the baggage-laden super MAGA state attorney general against incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn one week before the primary runoff. But the move puts Trump in direct odds with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who is sticking with Cornyn. The GOP Senate campaign arm has been warning that having Paxton as the nominee puts Republicans in a tougher spot come November.
Enten pointed out in a race against Paxton, the Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat has in the Texas Senate race in decades, heading into the general election.
“The idea that Democrats can’t win in Texas, I want to put that to rest,” Enten said. “They could very well do it. James Talarico could very well win in Texas. ” Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, pictured May 15, ahead of the Texas GOP Senate runoff, but he's underwater in the polls, and Republican senators are fretting it could give Democrats their best chance of flipping the seat.
He said that, looking at the data, the numbers at this point do support the conclusion that a Democrat will win Texas in 2026, which is different from what the numbers suggested in 2018, the last time Democrats got especially close.
“I mean, I appreciate the question because even CNN, they did a poll two, three weeks ago. They said Trump is at 100 percent,” he said.
“That’s Harry Enten. I like Harry Enten. You know, he’s got a lot of energy. I like him.
But he did a poll and he’s a good pro. And he gives the good and the bad, but I think he’s an honorable guy. He did a lot of good. ” When Democrat Beto O’Rourke went up against Sen.
Ted Cruz in 2018, the Republican senator was polling seven points ahead. Cruz went on to win by just over two points.
However, Talarico is currently polling four points ahead of Paxton.
“I was looking back at every Texas Senate race that I could find and at this point in the campaign, James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat than in at least 24 years. You have to go back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to Talarico’s polling right now,” Enten said. Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a campaign rally on March 2, 2026, in Houston, Texas.
Back in 2018, when Cruz eked out his reelection victory, he had a plus-seven net favorability despite the close race, but Paxton is actually seven points underwater in Texas. Trump’s favorability has also plummeted in Texas since 2018, when he was in his first term and facing those midterms.
“No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Ken Paxton yesterday,” Enten said. The president’s endorsement ahead of the May 26 runoff is expected to put him over the top for the primary, but it doesn’t bode well for November. Multiple Republican senators on Capitol Hill raised concerns after Trump’s announcement that the seat could be in play.
Texas Ken-Paxton John-Cornyn James-Talarico
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