Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

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Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say
Mark ZandiU.S. NewsKamala Harris
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Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.”.

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FILE - Freshly picked bananas float in a sorting pool as they are readied for packing and export at a farm in Ciudad Hidalgo, Chiapas state, Mexico on May 31 2019. FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks along the southern border with Mexico, on Aug. 22, 2024, in Sierra Vista, Ariz. – With characteristic bravado, Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.

What’s more, as tariffs raise the cost of imports, the weakened competition from foreign products makes it easier for U.S. producers to raise their own prices. Trump has made some implausible claims for protectionist policies. Asked how he would lower grocery prices — a particular irritant to many Americans — Trump has said the nation should limit the importation of food because America's farmers are “being decimated’’ by foreign competition.

The Trump campaign points out that U.S. inflation remained low even as Trump aggressively imposed tariffs as president. Consumer prices rose just 1.9% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020. And they note that, once in office, the Biden-Harris administration retained most of Trump’s tariffs, though Harris has criticized his plans to vastly expand their use.

And the inflationary backdrop was radically different during Trump’s first term. Back then, the Fed worried mainly about raising inflation up, not down, to its 2% target. The economy’s unexpectedly high-octane rebound from the COVID-19 recession of 2020 caused severe shortages of parts and labor and unleashed inflationary pressures that had lain dormant for decades.

Immigrants filled the gap. Over the past four years, the number of people in the United States who either have a job or are looking for one rose by nearly 8.5 million. Roughly 72% of them were foreign born.

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