Trump is expected to delay any China trade deal beyond Sunday's deadline for tariffs to rise and may even wait until after the 2020 election, Wall Street analysts said in a Newsweek poll
On 12/9/19 at 1:11 PM ESTPresident Donald Trump is expected to delay any China trade deal beyond next Sunday's deadline for tariffs to rise and may even wait until after the 2020 election, Wall Street analysts said in aInstead of escalating the trade dispute with higher tariffs, the Trump administration will likely defer the increases. China has already offered Trump an olive branch by cutting tariffs on agricultural products.do not expect the U.S.
"He [Trump] needs the voting public to clearly associate his trade deal terms with competence as president," Adams said."Because voters have short memories at the polls, he won't risk getting something material signed until summer or fall of 2020. He needs to manifest drama and make it seem like he was the one who resolved it all in the end, despite it being his own controversy in the first place.
"I expect some jawboning or spin to make people think negotiations are restarting anew after the 15th, or maybe another delay in the tariff start dates," said Kirk Kinder, owner and financial planner at Picket Fence Financial."China is hoping they can outlast Trump's presidency and work with a Democrat in 2021, while Trump wants re-election so he has more leverage."
David Jacobson, a professor of global business strategy at Southern Methodist University's Cox School of Business, said,"My feeling is that the Chinese economy has picked up in the last few months and the [Chinese Communist Party's] Central Committee is not desperate for a deal at this time." A worker displays soybeans imported from Ukraine at the Chinese port of Nantong on May 10. Imports of soybeans from the U.S., once China's biggest supplier, have dropped massively since a trade war between the U.S. and China began last year.Six analysts expect a phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China by December 15 but said the deal's scope could remain limited. They do not expect phases two or three until the 2020 election.
"Most likely resolution: a trade deal lite with more purchases of U.S. farm goods [like soy] and no mention of tariffs or intellectual property rights. Existing tariffs will remain in place, despite the harm they are causing the U.S. economy and, as 2020 unfolds, the U.S. consumer," said Porter Bibb, managing partner at MediaTech Capital Partners.
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