Hemorrhaging white voters while counting on a polling mirage to produce a wave of Black support is a recipe for disaster for the Republican Party in 2024.
would have limited resources to hold down the fort, let alone win over converts in expensive media markets.
Our team analyzed every poll with publicly available crosstabs featured in RealClearPolitics in the month of August. Seven out of the nine studies showed Trump performing well below his 2020 levels with White voters. An average of all nine polls found Trump's lead over Biden with White voters has shrunk from 17 points in 2020 to just 9 points now. Interestingly, the samepoll Trump's surrogates push because they like its African American numbers has him up by just four points with Whites.
Mathematically, it would be implausible for Trump to offset his losses with White voters with gains among Black voters, since the former outnumber the latter by a ratio of about 7 to 1. For every one percentage point Trump loses among Whites, he would need seven percentage points among Blacks just to break even—a daunting task.
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