After surviving his most recent legal saga with strong polling intact, it is dawning on many foreign policy observers that former President Donald Trump is more than likely to return to the White House.
At least 11 member countries are now meeting their threshold With some notable exceptions, the reactions among the expert class have ranged from panic to pearl-clutching, particularly with regard to a potential Trump administration’s handling of America’s most critical alliances.
If these projections were accurate, it raises this question: Why NATO didn’t collapse during Mr. Trump’s presidency? It should also lead more observers to ask why NATO is stronger today, arguably because of Mr. Trump’s no-nonsense messaging, encouraging members to take on larger roles. If we are just looking at outcomes, there is a case to be made that the former president is raising expectations of NATO members to shoulder more significant roles in the alliance.
At the time, just five of 28 allies had met the agreed defense spending threshold of 2% of gross domestic product. Even if EU nations could summon the unified political will, they would still be unable to establish a collective defense pact by themselves. Nor do they have the military capacity to deter Russia on their own.
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