President Biden is leading former President Trump 50 to 48 percent in new Fox News polling.
Conventional wisdom in modern American politics dictates that Democrats benefit the most from mobilizing voters who are checked out of the political system. But a recent analysis of polling from the last couple of election cycles suggests that the opposite might be true in 2024: It could be former President Donald Trump, not President Joe Biden, who will benefit most from getting disengaged voters to turn out.
Less engaged and infrequent voters have some distinct features, Cohn notes: Given that many swing voters are disengaged voters, it’s vital to pay attention to those preferences. One takeaway here is that Biden’s central campaign narrative that Trump poses an existential threat to democracy faces some big limitations with this set of voters.
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