SA's financeministers have an abysmal record when it comes to forecasting. In nine out of the last 12 years they have over-estimated growth, sometimes by inexcusably large margins. Moneyweb economy
Our finance ministers have an abysmal record when it comes to forecasting. In nine out of the last 12 years they have over-estimated growth, sometimes by inexcusably large margins. The graph below tells the story. Admittedly, forecasting is never easy given the ever-changing nature of the economy, and the events of the last three years could hardly be described as normal. But the real whoppers were in the years preceding Covid, in 2018 and 2019.
Read: Power crisis: Sarb slashes GDP forecast in half for next two years Thia poses the question whether, in the event that growth undershoots Treasury’s forecast, Sars will be able to squeeze additional revenue from an already exhausted tax base. If not, the balance will have to be found through borrowings, and the budget deficit will likely exceed the 4% target for 2023/4. The Sarb is typically more conservative in its outlook, though in this instance, Treasury’s 0.
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