Douglas Farmer analyzes the upcoming Trail Blazers vs. Hornets matchup and advises against betting on LaMelo Ball's point total. Despite recent strong performances and the absence of Brandon Miller, Farmer points out Ball's struggles to exceed his point prop in recent games. He also highlights the Blazers' strong recent form and their potential to be overlooked as they face the Hornets on the second night of a back-to-back.
While some may be eager to bet on LaMelo Ball's scoring output against Portland, Douglas Farmer breaks down why that isn't the best approach ahead of tonight's clash in Charlotte. The Portland Trail Blazers are playing a bit too well to be in the thick of the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, but the Charlotte Hornets are very much mired in that race to the bottom of the NBA. That said, it should always be remembered that players and coaches do not tank; front offices do.
On the surface, Brandon Miller’s season-ending surgery may help LaMelo Ball eclipse tonight's points prop, but my Trail Blazers vs. Hornets predictions are fading the point guard's O/U. Ball will likely come out tonight with a chip on his shoulder after Thursday’s release of All-Star voting results. No guard in the Eastern Conference received more fan votes than Ball did, yet he will not be an All-Star starter because he was third in player voting and seventh in media ballots. In seven games back from his most recent injury, Ball has averaged 25.6 points, falling short of this lofty points prop in all but one of them. In 20 games with Miller this season, Ball has averaged 30 points per game. In nine games without Miller, Ball’s average falls to 26.6 ppg. He takes three fewer shots per game (21.9 field-goal attempts from 24.9) and makes less of them (40.6% from 42.4%). Let's take Ball’s assists prop Over as a nod to Williams’s success of late, as much of it has come on assists from the point guard. Adding in the Hornets moneyline may seem ambitious, even as -220 favorites, given the continued tank for Flagg and the difficulty in comprehending the weeks before the NBA All-Star break. However, let's keep in mind that Portland is on the second night of a back-to-back and should continue to be doubted. Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out if your team is winning by 10 points or more at halftime. Portland is on a three-game winning streak after walloping Orlando last night, but this spread has still climbed away from the Blazers after opening with them as 4.5-point underdogs. Trail Blazers vs Hornets trend Though not a distinctly Under team this season (21 of 44 games to the Under), Portland has cashed the Under in five of seven games on the second night of a back-to-back this season.
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