The probabilities are based on trading in CME Fed Funds futures contracts.
There are now 93.3% odds that the Fed's target range for the federal funds rate, its key rate, will be lowered by a quarter percentage point to 5% to 5.25% in September from the current 5.25% to 5.5%, according. And there are 6.7% odds that the rate will be a half percentage point lower in September, accounting for some traders believing the Fed will cut at its meeting at the end of July and again in September, says the tool. Taken together, you get the 100% odds.
The CME FedWatch Tool computes the probabilities based on trading in fed funds futures contracts at the exchange, where traders are placing their bets on the level of the effective fed funds rate in 30-day increments. Simply put, this is a reflection of where traders are putting their money.
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