Bitcoin fails to convince traders and analysts that the bear-market bottom is in despite July BTC price gains already approaching 10%.
Bitcoin price gains approached 10% for the first two weeks of the month, but analysis warned of the bear market returning from August onward. Bitcoin is seeing its best month of July since 2022, but analysis warns that the result could be firmly bearish.
Bitcoin is nearing double-digit gains for July, but market reactions draw comparisons to 2022. $70,000 remains a target for the current bounce. Bitcoin’s last bear-market year, in 2022, saw price end July nearly 17% higher after significant 38% losses the month prior. What happened in August, however, showed that calls for bullish continuation at the time were premature.
BTC/USD fell by around 14%, followed by a further 3% drop in September.
“$BTC Has been pretty much in line with its average July performance so far. But of course it is still early,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented on the CoinGlass numbers in an Daan Crypto Trades noted that even taking bull markets into account, Q3 is Bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with average gains of just 6%. Also concerned about seasonality is trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who notes that BTC price performance in 2026 is matching its previous bear markets closely.
“If history repeats, things are likely going to pick up for Bitcoin and its Summer relief rally in the second half of July,” he, Rekt Capital sees August canceling out this month’s gains in preparation for a classic bear-market bottom later in the year. Bitcoin returns to $64.3K with new 3-week BTC price highs imminent “Interesting few days ahead,” Peter Anthony, creator of the House of Crypto YouTube channel, forecast while analyzing the daily chart.
Another trader eyed the area between $67,000 and $73,000 for a short entry, also predicting a “bullish July, then Bearish August until Q4. ”and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
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