Who will give up on the phase 1 mini-deal first?
The trade war is on thin ice. That’s fine, until someone slips through the cracks. The question is, who’s going to get off the ice first to avoid an icey fall? President Trump? Or Xi Jinping? The one who gets off first throws an unsettling stone not far from the other’s feet.
Meanwhile, American money is flowing into China. China money is basically being banned from the U.S. Hong Kong is at risk of sanctions if some people in the Senate get their way. And Bloomberg is actually complaining that Trump is merely settling for peanuts, when they’ve been clamoring for status quo China trade since the first tariffs were issued back in the summer of 2018.
today that “China appears set on trying to ‘wait Trump out,’ which was a meme we heard earlier in the trade war, rather than pinning its hopes on a ‘phase one’ deal—of which we have been highly sceptical from the get-go.
A weaker China is a problem for a number of economies, as rich as Germany and Australia, and as nearly broke as Argentina and a recovering Brazilian economy, too. They are all highly dependent on the Chinese market.
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