This year's category-by-category look at which musicals and plays have the best chance of claiming honors during the June 8 telecast on CBS, based on a model built on historical data.
Ben Zauzmer is a contributing writer for The Hollywood Reporter and the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood. Shows set in the U.S., the U.K., Cuba, Italy, and Iran all make their way to the nominees circle.
Ben Zauzmer is a contributing writer for The Hollywood Reporter and the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.. Shows set in the U.S., the U.K., Cuba, Italy, and Iran all make their way to the nominees circle. Not to mention a show from South Korea projected to win more Tonys than any other production, potentially the first one ever to premiere in Asia and win best musical., which categories a show is nominated in, blended critic predictions, and betting markets to project the odds that each nominee will emerge victorious in every category. After another wonderful year on, with 42 new shows opening and 29 of them receiving nominations, it’s time to get excited for the big night with a data-based forecast at who might triumph at Radio City Music Hall on June 8 on CBS .is both the name of the show and a surprisingly apt description for how its night at the Tonys will conclude. Emphasis on “maybe”: the model is higher onthan one might suspect, since it takes into account that show’s multiple honors for its off-Broadway run a year ago. Best play is much closer than best musical, with three productions above a 1-in-5 chance to win. The Drama League has a remarkable streak in this category, predicting every Tony winner sincewon best musical in 1995, but that was an odd year: only two original musicals opened that season become the tenth man on that list, but he could become the first ever to do it in consecutive years after his win a year ago. The model has him at 19.2 percent, a not-insurmountable 20 percentage points the leader, Darren Criss is a popular pick as well in what’s shaping up to be both a great race in its own right and a precursor of the musical revival category.Sarah Snook stars as Dorian Gray – and every other role – and has a 42.8 percent chance to win the Tony for the one-woman show. But close behind her is Laura Donnelly stands out as not only the favorite in this category, but as the most likely winner across all eight acting categories., making this category its best chance at a victory.) belonged in the leading or featured category. But regardless of which category she slots into, no one is debating that this was a Tony-worthy performance as Cuban singer Omara Portuondo.appears to be the more beloved production overall – projected to win five categories – so that might be enough to tip the scales in Ricamora’s favor. It feels like this happens in so many years: The directors of the best musical and best musical revival frontrunners going head-to-head as the top two candidates in this category. Michael Arden could join Trevor Nunn, Jerry Zaks, Joe Mantello, and Jack O’Brien as the only people to win best direction of a musical and best direction of a play in consecutive years. But to accomplish that, she’ll need to take down the slight frontrunner, Sam Pinkleton does an excellent job threading the needle – apologies for the pun – between faithfully recreating 19th century styles and mirroring the inherent silliness of the show’s concept. None of these shows won a Drama Desk or an Outer Critics Circle honor for their costumes, so it’s a less informed prediction than most.won seven Tonys, but this is the only category it won that its successor is also favored to win. The first time around, it was Andrew Bridge winning his second Tony, after a first forStranger Things: The First Shadow holds the highest percentage on. And that’s actually underselling how honored this production might be, since it’s also due to receive a Special Tony Award for its illusions and technical effects.in 1974) are currently the only pair of individuals to share this award for a single musical. The prior paragraph notwithstanding, 59 Productions breaks the dichotomy between individuals and duos. This design studio already has a win on the musical side from, in conjunction with four-time nominee Miriam Buether.for sound design of a musical. If you’re entering a Tony pool, you may as well flip a coin.marks the single most likely winner of any nominee in any category this year. Not sure if this is the category you expected to hear that stat in, but when the critics and the precursor awards are unanimous, that’s what happens.would become the tenth pair of best musical/best play winners in the same season to each win 5+ Tonys. The most recent occurrence wasIt might feel like the same show always wins the trio of best musical, book, and score. But in recent years, that’s far from true:, and could certainly conclude this awards season with a Tony. But, a key factor in the model is which other categories a show is nominated in, and only two other shows in the past 50 years (I don’t know if the Tonys tipped their hand here or not, but Marco Paguia has technically already won a Tony for, as he and the rest of the band received a Special Tony Award this year. He’s got a 56.2 percent to add a competitive win to that trophy case.These blurbs alongside each chart cover but a small fraction of the talent from around the world involved in making this Broadway season happen. Perhaps the same could be said of the Tony telecast itself, which will surely be a delightful three hours that simultaneously leaves us craving more time at the theater.Danielle Directo-MestonStar-Loved Label Cuyana’s Archive Sale Ends Soon: Shop the Best Finds Under $250, From Luxe Leather Bags to Meghan Markle’s Cashmere Coat. We use vendors that may also process your information to help provide our services. // This site is protected by reCAPTCHA Enterprise and the GoogleJenna Ortega on Transitioning Out of Child Stardom: “I Play a Schoolgirl” in ‘Wednesday’ “but I’m Also a Young Woman”The Hollywood Reporter is a part of Penske Media Corporation. © 2025 The Hollywood Reporter, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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