Things have changed.
Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres looks on in the dugout during the ninth inning against the New York Mets at Petco Park on Friday, June 5, 2026 in San Diego, California.
There’s just not enough healthy talent on this Padres team, and not enough robustness in the farm system, to excite me about where things seem to be headed. Eroding the margins of a club I forecast to win 86 games, injuries have hit the left fielder and the second baseman, the Opening Day starting pitcher, a set-up reliever and seemingly the only catcher above prospect Ethan Salas who can hit.
Even though Manny Machado and perhaps Xander Bogaerts may stand to benefit from positive regression toward their career norms and will bring mental strength and savvy to the daily competition, a great final 100 games this season, from either 33-year-old infielder, would come as a surprise in this age of high-velocity pitching that’s punishing many older hitters. Bogaerts has been asked to play too many innings at shortstop, in part because of Jake Cronenworth’s injury.
Backup infielder Sung-Mun Song, a soon-to-be 30-year-old from South Korea who is getting his first taste of major league pitching, entered Saturday with three singles and one double in 29 at-bats, to go with four walks. The starting rotation, which lost Nick Pivetta to an elbow injury in April and can’t reasonably expect him or Joe Musgrove to return and regain ace form this year, has felt the strain of its own limitations and the near-constant duress caused by the offense’s deep funks.
In other years, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill lit up numerous games. They infused power hitting, a high on-base rate and sharp baserunning into the attack for lengthy stretches. This season, although they’ve each supplied very good defense, both young stars have fallen into career-worst hitting funks. Tatis, 27, has gained some traction in the past few weeks as he combats a bewildering slump that dates to last year’s playoff series in Wrigley Field.
Even if we can expect several home runs from him in the next four months, it’s clear that Tatis has been dealt the most complicated swing riddle of his seven-year career. The 23-year-old Merrill, like Tatis, is intensely devoted to the team’s success. He’ll have to avoid trying to do much, while also realizing that if the Padres are to earn a third consecutive wild-card playoff berth, he’ll probably have to produce as he did in his rookie year.
The Padres are a mentally strong team whose wisdom sources also include injured pitchers Yu Darvish, Musgrove and Pivetta. They have one of the sport’s better bullpens, despite Jeremiah Estrada’s multiple trips to the injured list and Adrián Morejón’s dip in production from last year. Winning close games often, the team compiled a 24-16 record in the season’s first quarter.
The offense’s paltry run-scoring raised alarms, but its habit of making hard contact suggested the pendulum could swing toward league-average run production. After leading the National League with its rate of batted balls that were clocked at 95-plus miles per hour off the bat, the offense has fallen off to an NL-worst percentage in the subsequent 22 games.
And this week, it lost versatile outfielder Ramon Laureano, its best hitter through mid-April, until at least September because of a recurring hip issue that required recent surgery and may have contributed to Laureano’s own plummet. As for Cronenworth, his return doesn’t appear close. And like others, the 32-year-old was off to a career-worst start with the bat before concussion-like symptoms shut him down last month.
A topic for another day is whether the Padres would benefit, long term, from falling out of this year’s wild-card race by August. Closer Mason Miller would attract significant trade offers before the Aug. 3 trade deadline if contenders regard A.J. Preller as a seller; and San Diego’s farm ranks 30th of 30 systems as judged by a former Braves evaluator with ESPN, a former Blue Jays evaluator with The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.
For now, Miller stands as a pivotal figure in the Padres’ attempt to assert themselves in the crowded wild-card race. Preller and Padres players should soon have a better idea of where they standing. The Braves and Dodgers will be coming to the East Village in the next homestand. In July’s first week, it’ll be four more games against the Dodgers.
Preller is hypercompetitive, doing some of his best work when under heavy duress. He may have to do it again this summer, if new team owners José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones ask him to load up the roster for another wild-card chase.
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