Free picks for MLB prop bets on September 27, swinging at today's MLB props and giving our best MLB prop picks, predictions, and baseball bets.
. The lefty has had his ups and downs but has also been a generally steady presence who eats a ton of innings on the regular. Entering play today, only three pitchers have accumulated 200 innings pitched this season. Valdez will eclipse that milestone if he goes six strong — or, 18 outs — against Seattle.
The Mariners have done relatively well against left-handers but also own the highest strikeout rate vs. southpaws this season. Now, you could use this as inspiration to take the Over on Valdez's 6.5 strikeouts at plus money, but I'm more inclined to take the outs for a couple of reasons. Seattle's lineup has shown an all-or-nothing approach, which has worked well on the whole but has also yielded some inconsistent results. The Mariners strike out a ton and the bats can otherwise go silent. Valdez is not a prototypical strikeout arm, relying more on inducing soft contact to ensure the best results. Yes, he's fanned 10 batters in two of his last three starts, but those outings came against the Royals and A's.
Last night's starter, Cristian Javier, couldn't get out of the fifth inning, forcing Dusty Baker to go to the bullpen early. Valdez has completed six innings in 23 of 30 starts this season. With the playoffs far from a sure thing for the Astros — sitting 1.5 games up on Seattle for the final Wild Card spot — the sturdy lefty will need to be at his best and can be expected to pitch into the seventh.
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