Free picks for MLB prop bets on August 17, swinging at today's MLB props and giving our best MLB prop picks, predictions, and baseball bets.
OK. Patrick Corbin has burned me recently. Despite a horrendous opponent-expected batting average, the embattled’ starter has only allowed 11 hits over his last three starts. He had allowed seven or more hits in 14 of his previous 21 starts.
Oddsmakers have set the Over 6.5 hits allowed at plus money that is too tempting for me to pass up in today’s matchup against the visitingLet’s go over this one more time. Corbin is bad. The left-hander’s expected ERA, opponent expected slugging percentage and strikeout rate are all at least in the Bottom %5 among MLB pitchers. And his .312 opponent xBA is the worst in baseball. So, I’m calling shenanigans on his recent run of fewer hits allowed.
The Red Sox have been a more dangerous lineup when facing right-handed pitchers but they are still solid vs. southpaws. Boston ranks 10th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 16th in wRC+ against righties this season. The other reason Corbin has been profitable in the hits-allowed market is that his leash isn’t as short as you would think for somebody with numbers like that. The Nats just need innings at this point and that’s something Corbin can provide. He averages 92.8 pitches and 5.72 innings per start this season.
That should mean plenty of opportunities for the Red Sox to rack up the hits tonight and get the"Fade Patrick Corbin" train back on track. But like I said, it’s the plus-money that makes this worth a wager.
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