Our betting analysts answer some of the most pressing questions surrounding Thursday night's matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Titans are coming off a win over the Falcons, while the Steelers are coming off a loss to the Jaguars. How are you betting this game?That's a very low total, and the Titans' defense hasn't been particularly strong this year. Even the Pittsburgh defense is"only" ninth in DVOA. The Steelers have been a very fast-paced offense as well, although the Titans offense is always slow. I think the spread is fairly accurate butin his NFL debut, but that game was at home.
I'm going to stay away from betting this, but I completely understand Titans fans wanting to hammer the OVER here after what they saw last week.I am drawn to this bet. Hopkins and Levis had an undeniable rapport against the Falcons, and the veteran receiver has averaged 77.6 receiving yards per game in his career.
By now, you should be well aware that the Titans are one of the league's premier pass-funnel defenses in the league, meaning they play excellent run defense, but struggle to defend the pass. Not only is this a tough matchup forWill Levis had a 6% sack rate in his first start last week, but that's just a single game. More informative, I think, is that he had a very high 11% sack rate at Kentucky last season.
Harris has surpassed 8.5 receiving yards in two consecutive games since the Steelers' bye week. Over the same period of time, he also has eight targets. Harris is likely to be the recipient of a few check downs fromPlaying against a rookie quarterback, the Steelers are much less likely to be playing from behind and can probably adopt a more conservative gameplan that allows their defense to do the heavy lifting . Based on Pittsburgh's past pass rates and the Steelers being 2.
With the Steelers actually favored in this game, it's less likely they end up in a situation where the opponent has a big lead and are just running the ball over and over. That should results in fewer tackle opportunities for Holcomb, a linebacker. My model projects him for just 6.8 tackles + assists.
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