Tin, initially a star performer in the London Metal Exchange (LME) market, saw its gains dwindle as demand fell short of expectations. While production disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar raised concerns about supply, the International Tin Association (ITA) revealed a 3.9% slump in tin usage in 2023, primarily driven by weakness in cyclical sectors. Despite supply constraints, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stocks remained relatively robust, indicating ample metal availability. The market's outlook hinges on whether demand recovers in 2024 and if Indonesian or Myanmar production rebounds.
Tin had been the star performer among the London Metal Exchange base metals pack until then with year-to-date gains of over 40% in both April and July.
It amounted to the largest bull commitment since 2018, when the LME first started publishing a Commitments of Traders Report. The result was a shocker. Usage had slumped by 3.9% in 2023, a far weaker outcome than the 1.9% contraction users had expected in the previous year’s survey. Look no further to understand why there was no physical tin shortage despite the supply hits in Indonesia and Myanmar.Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of refined tin, saw shipments fall by 33% to 46,000 tons in 2024.
The flow of ore across the border to China’s smelters has steadily declined in recent months after the last stocks at Man Maw were shipped.
TIN LME DEMAND SUPPLY INDONESIA MYANMAR CHINA INTERNATIONAL TIN ASSOCIATION
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