High-scoring affairs are starting to become the norm as we move deeper into the first round, and Douglas Farmer expects Game 5 to feature no shortage of offense.
Farmer's prediction: High-scoring affairs are starting to become the norm as we move deeper into the first round, and bettors should expect Game 5 to feature no shortage of offense. The Minnesota Timberwolves pushed the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink over the weekend, taking a 3-1 lead in the series with two dramatic fourth quarters.
With Luka Doncic and LeBron James, some faith needs to be put in the Lakers with their backs against the wall. The eight-point shift in the spread from Game 4 underscores that faith.That faith is only furthered when recognizing the three days off and how that should benefit the Lakers going into Game 5. One of these teams counts a deep bench and a young rotation as advantages. Playoff basketball showed up right away this year, with officials giving physical defense a longer leash and thus skewing games toward their Unders.Of the first 26 playoff games, 19 hit their Unders, including the first two games of this series. Of the six games on Sunday and Monday, only one hit its Under. The last two games of this series topped their totals by 12.5 and 20 points. And yet, this total has not adjusted from Games 3 and 4. Given the entire playoff trend, that makes some sense.fully entered the rotation, ranking No. 17 in defensive rating from March 1 to the end of the regular season. This should not have surprised anyone. LA has no inside presence to rely on, certainly not one to help cover up Luka’s defensive lapses. For much of the time, the Lakers’ offense made up for those woes. It was not stellar, but it was good enough.should take that upon themselves. The pair combined for 65 points in Game 4, and there are no signs of the generous whistle slowing down for LeBron after he took 18 free throws in that last-minute loss. Meanwhile, Luka keeps chucking from deep, going 5-for-12 on Sunday. The Timberwolves have done their part this series, cashing their team total Over in three of four games. Desperation should assure the Lakers push this game toward its Over, and aThe Lakers made a decision when they backed out of their trade for Hornets’ center Mark Williams. They decided to diminish some of Luka’s best skills for a season, presumably to land a better center or put together a better deal this summer. That may pan out in the long run, but it is costing LA in this series. Doncic’s forays into the lane no longer put defenders into the peril that makes Luka so lethal. With no reliable rim runner, those defenders are not in as much space. They simply focus on Doncic. He is not finding assists in the lane. Instead, he is shooting floaters and pull-ups. Compared to facing the Timberwolves last postseason, Doncic is taking 3-pointers on a smaller share of his shots. It is not that he is taking significantly fewer threes — 10.6 per game in that series a year ago vs. 9.5 thus far in this series. It is that he is passing less often once inside. Doncic passing less often means Doncic scoring more often, averaging 35.3 points in this series when not actively battling illness. The other cost of not having a reliable rim runner is that the Lakers give up rebounds. In fact, Doncic has been their best rebounder in this series. . There is a reason McDaniels has averaged 7.25 rebounds in this series, highlighted by nine in Game 1 and 11 in Game 4.Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet getsMoving this spread by eight points compared to Game 4 is a bit extreme, especially when realizing it moved 9.5 points from Game 3. Such a hefty move is a nod toward LA’s desperation, but it is a bucket more than homecourt advantage should have justified. Furthermore, Minnesota prevailed ATS in both Games 3 and 4. Shouldn’t some adjustment have been made toward the Timberwolves, rather than this significant jump? Dropping this total a couple of points since the market opened argues for some faith in Minnesota, despite that spread overreaction.Minnesota has hit its Team Total Over in 33 of its last 50 games . Find more : Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds. In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets. While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved. 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