As a Sunday deadline looms for a ban on TikTok in the US, the popular app still holds several cards to avoid being shut down. Experts outline various scenarios, from a Supreme Court injunction to a last-minute divestiture deal, that could keep TikTok running. The fate of 170 million American users hangs in the balance.
With China-based parent company ByteDance, the ban will take effect on Sunday, the day before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office. Still, TikTok retains several avenues for avoiding a ban in a high-stakes standoff that could be decided in its final hours, experts told ABC News. Roughly 170 million TikTok users in the U.S.
could lose access to the app altogether at the end of this week if the company chooses to take the app dark, or they may end up scrolling as if nothing has happened, the experts added. This has been a game of chicken all along, said James Lewis, a data security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Here's how TikTok could still avoid a ban, according to experts. A straightforward way for TikTok to avoid a ban would require a last-minute intervention from the Supreme Court, experts said. The nation's highest court does not plan to release formal rulings before Sunday. The court, however, could issue a temporary injunction that pauses the ban while justices weigh the case. The legal challenge centers on a federal law that would ban the company unless it divests from China-based parent ByteDance. The court is unlikely to issue an injunction since it would only take place if a majority of the justices believe TikTok stands a good chance of winning its challenge of the ban-or-sale law, Saurabh Vishnubhakat, a professor at the Cardozo School of Law who studies tech-related issues, told ABC News. The longer the court waits to issue an injunction, the less likely it is that the injunction will come, Vishnubhakat said. Another avenue for TikTok to avoid a ban is made clear in the law: The app could cut ties with parent company ByteDance as part of a divestiture deal. In fact, the law allows for a 90-day extension of the deadline for a TikTok sale, as long as the company is advancing toward an agreement. Under such a scenario, the deadline would move back to April, providing additional time without a ban while the Supreme Court weighs the case. In theory, TikTok could announce the commencement of negotiations with a potential buyer and urge President Joe Biden to grant the 90-day extension before the ban takes effect, experts said. Such an outcome is unlikely, since ByteDance has shown little appetite for a sale and it would be difficult to establish credible negotiations in just a few remaining days, Sarah Kreps, the director of the Tech Policy Institute at Cornell University, told ABC News. Kreps added that the law gives leeway to a sitting president in setting the threshold for negotiations that would warrant a 90-day extension. Trump, who opposes a TikTok ban, could grant the extension after he takes office with scant evidence of negotiations, temporarily reversing the ban, Kreps noted. Trump administration declines to enforce the ban TikTok could continue its current U.S. operations if the Trump administration deprioritizes enforcement of the ban or outright refuses to carry out the law, experts said. The law requires distributors like Apple and Google to stop offering the social media platform in their app stores, and it requires cloud service providers like Oracle to withhold the infrastructure necessary for TikTok to operate. In theory, Trump's Justice Department could opt against enforcement of the law, reassuring the likes of Apple and Oracle that the companies would not face prosecution in the event of a violation, experts said. If Trump orders the Justice Department to forego enforcement, he could open his administration up to a legal challenge centered on the refusal to faithfully execute the law, Vishnubhakat said. However, an order to lower the urgency of enforcement -- which could grant third-party companies a similar sense of reassurance -- would fall under the latitude afforded to the executive branch in setting its policy priorities, he added. Trump could come out and say, Enforcement is unnecessary and inadvisable from his standpoint, Vishnubhakat said. Congress repeals the ban Along the same lines, TikTok could continue to operate beyond the deadline on Sunday and await a potential repeal of the law that banned the app in the first place. A repeal would require passage in both houses of Congress, landing the measure on Trump's desk for his signature. However, the prospect of repeal is unlikely, Lewis said, pointing to bipartisan support for the ban as well as other issues that appear to be a higher priority for Trump. Congress can always change its mind, but I don't think it'll do it, Lewis said. If you were Trump, why would you spend your political capital to save TikTok?
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