The Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) will play the Detroit Lions (7-4) in a Thanksgiving showcase at Ford Field. Here are three reasons why the Packers can sweep their rivals.
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers won’t have turkey on their plates on Thursday. What they will have is a golden opportunity when they face the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving.A chance to sweep a division rival and perhaps knock it out of the playoff race.
With the table set, here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions at Ford Field for the second time in three years.The Lions’ defense is going to challenge Green Bay’s receivers. According to data provided to Packers On SI by Pro Football Focus, the Lions have played the second-highest percentage of man coverage in the NFL. “They are who they are,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “They’re going to challenge you every step of the way. They bring pressure, they play man, they get their hands on you. They do a really nice job. “They’re aggressive, so that’s one thing we just got to be ready for. Be ready to handle that. That’s the big challenge about playing those guys. It’s going to be tough on the road, too, with all the communication and things they do. It’s going to be a good test for us.” It’s a test the Packers’ passing game has, well, passed. In fact, Jordan Love has been significantly better vs. man coverage. Here’s Love’s man vs. zone stats from PFF, with rankings based on the top 34 quarterbacks in snaps:112.4 vs. man ranks No. 7; 90.6 vs. zone.7.8 vs. man ranks sixth; vs. 7.6 vs. zone. Notably, Love was excellent against the Lions in Week 1, and he had strong games recently against the Giants and Steelers, who play the third-most man coverage snaps,“Offensively, it starts with Love,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters on Tuesday. “He's just dynamic, gives his guys a chance, plays with poise, processes defense pressure quickly, sees the field very well and gives his guys a chance to make the play.” The Lions under first-year coordinator Kelvin Sheppard are a different team now compared to September, as you’d expect. “Honestly, really their confidence,” receiver Christian Watson said of the difference since the opener. “Looks like they’re just going out there and playing free and just having a trust in what their plan is. They’ve just making plays. So, we’ve got to find a way to consistently beat them. They’re going to be in a lot of man. They have a lot of faith in their front to get home if they play man on the back end. So, I’m excited for that.” The Lions have a quality secondary, though they miss All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph. Over the last three games, they are 24th in opponent passer rating. While they are sixth in opponent passer rating in home games this season, they gave up 399 passing yards in just 19 completions against the Giants last week. “Some good, some bad,” Stenavich said of the offense’s success vs. man. “I think you can always be better when you’re thinking about things. But I believe in our guys. I think we got guys that can get open versus man coverage. So, I’m excited to see what happens this Thanksgiving.”This won’t be evident in the first quarter or even the first half. But it could be the game-deciding factor in the fourth quarter. On Sunday, the Packers beat the Vikings with relative ease. In a game that lasted less than 3 hours, the defense was on the field for just 44 snaps. Micah Parsons, Green Bay’s premier pass rusher, played 40 snaps. Meanwhile, the Lions beat the Giants in overtime. In a game that lasted almost 3 1/2 hours, their defense was on the field for 82 snaps. Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit’s premier pass rusher, played 77 snaps. Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons celebrates after sacking Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy. | Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesRelayed that comment, defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said, “I’m glad he’s ready right now because we’re going to need him to be ready.” Playing defense requires extreme effort. On a running play to the right side of the field, the left tackle or left receiver might not be expected to sprint to the ball, but the defenders must. Pass protection requires patience; pass rush requires explosiveness. Players hate going from a Sunday game to a Thursday game. Right about the time their bodies are starting to feel decent again, they’re right back on the field for another 60 or 70 plays. “It’s hard and they’ve got to deal with it, too,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters. “It’s hard. You’ve just come out of a game and you’re fatigued, you’re tired, the body’s a little beat up, but that’s what you’ve got to do. And you’ve got to get your recovery. And then we start hitting Wednesday. They’ve got to start ramping back up and mentally, they’ve got to get locked in and ready to go for 60 to 80 plays, full-tilt. It’s a mindset.”The Lions are one of the NFL’s best teams. There aren’t many weaknesses, though a couple things jump off the page – notably the Lions’ third-down offense and red-zone defense.Packers on offense: First, 49.3 percent conversions. Lions on defense: Ninth, 36.2 percent.Packers on offense: Sixth, 65.9 percent touchdowns. Lions on defense: 25th, 61.1 percent.Those are big advantages for Green Bay when its offense is in the red zone and its defense faces third down. It must take advantage of those season-long advantages.Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.
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