Duke University’s latest CFO survey has almost 70% of them predicting a recession by the end of 2020
. If the economy does weaken over the next 12 to 18 months and Duke’s CFO survey is correct, the most important issue that President Trump is running on could weaken substantially.Business investment spending in the U.S. generates about 15% of total GDP. While it is substantially less than consumer spending of almost 70%, companies impact consumer spending by their hiring plans and how large raises are. If CFOs react to their recession outlook, a downturn could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The survey shows that, “Nearly half of U.S. CFOs believe that the U.S. will be in recession by the second quarter of 2020, and 69 percent believe that a recession will have begun by the end of next year. The results are consistent with last quarter’s survey in which 67 percent of CFOs predicted recession by the third quarter of 2020.”Some of the key findings from the June 2018 and 2019 surveys show CFOs are forecasting lower growth in almost all the surveyed categories.
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