Scientists have devised an exercise in which a hypothetical asteroid 2023 PDC strikes Earth, calculating the kind of devastation that could ensue from such an impact.
The impact probability of 2023 PDC is initially just 1-in-10,000, but Chodas explained that this steadily increases, as asteroid tracking facilities on Earth continue following the rock, better constraining its orbit around theAsteroid apocalypse: How big must a space rock be to end human civilization?
The size of the asteroid is important because not only will it determine how much damage it does, but it will also determine what measures need to be taken to divert it, or whether this would be possible at all. Not only would this help us better ascertain the size and mass of the asteroid, but such a mission would help better constrain another crucial aspect of the asteroid that is vital to mitigating its impact on Earth: its orbit.
"There are three main types of impact hazards that we model. These include local ground damage due to an explosive blast or fireball," Wheeler said."There's also tsunami potential for large ocean impacts, and for the very largest cases, there's a potential for global climate effects. Wheeler explains that there are other factors other than size such as the asteroid's angle of entry to the atmosphere that contribute to uncertainty in the range of potential impact energies, and thus the resulting damage severity.
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