Man City are clearly favored to win the FA Cup. But a Man United win isn't impossible. Here are five ways we predict an upset could happen.
Ryan O'Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He's also the author of"Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution."
So, if we were to get that 1-in-10 or 2-in-10 outcome on Saturday, what might it look like? Here are five ways Manchester United could actually beat Manchester City and win the FA Cup.season, he attempted 123 shots worth 28.9 expected goals. In his second Premier League season, he attempted 121 shots worth 29.4 expected goals. In 2022-23, 60 of those shots ended up on target. In 2023-24, 59 were on target. Across both campaigns, Haaland hit the target with 48.8% of his shots.
Finishing, though, is harder to predict, and it accounts for a smaller chunk of a player's goal scoring. On a nearly identical shot profile, Haaland exceeded his xG by about seven goals last season and thenhis xG by about two goals this season. An individual player, then, can experience something like a 10-goal finishing swing from season to season on a consistent diet of shots.
What you can read from this is that Onana's big strength is smothering central attempts where there aren't many defenders in front of the ball. He's not tipping wide those shots bound for the upper corners -- he's making himself big and stopping shots from the center of the box. Also known as: the exact kind of shots that City like to create.
This is the new version of City, where the fullbacks aren't really attackers, there is frequently not a single winger on the field, Haaland isn't aiding buildup play, and there's no midfielder running into the box. When it doesn't work, they simply are unable to work the ball close to the goal, and the opposition is able to get up a head of steam and still break past the increased defenders that they frequently keep behind the ball.
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