The Super Bowl is a prop-betting bonanza, and no one takes better advantage of the action than our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner. He’s tracking the 2022 Super Bowl prop bets market…
The Super Bowl is a prop-betting bonanza, and no one takes better advantage of the action than our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner. He’s tracking the 2022 Super Bowl prop bets market in the run-up to Bengals-Rams, comparing his projections to the odds in order to make picks as he identifies value on a rolling basis.
I was a little surprised to find value on a Cooper Kupp Over. I would guess that sportsbooks are taking the majority of money bet on his props on the Overs , but there’s still quite a bit of value here. First, I’m projecting Kupp for closer to 8.0 receptions while books appear to be closer to 8.3-8.4 receptions. And based on my simulations, Kupp’s median for “longest reception” is closer to 33.5 yards. Here are my projected chances of him going over various yards in this range: 27.5 ; 28.5 ; 29.5 ; 30.5 ; 31.5 ; 32.5 ; 33.5 ; 34.5 . Kupp isn’t necessarily a deep threat , but he is phenomenal after the catch . His massive volume also gives him multiple shots to clear this number, which he’s done in 15 of 20 games this season with a median of 36.evin Huber Longest Punt Over 52.5 Yards The Super Bowl is the only game all season we are blessed with punter props, so I always try to take advantage — that’s why I created a simulator just for punter props and have found a pretty big edge on one. Bengals punter Kevin Huber’s median expectation for “longest punt” should be closer to 55.5 yards. I’m giving him about a 62 percent chance to clear 52.5 yards. The math checks out, as he has cleared 52.5 yards in 13 of 20 games this season. Here are my projected chances of him going over various yards: 51.5 ; 52.5 ; 53.5 ; 54.5 ; 55.5 ; 56.5 . As you can see, every yard matters in this market, so it’s critical to lock it in at 52.5 yards or better.
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